HISTORICAL ADAPTIVE · MONTE CARLO

How widely could Jacob’s descendants spread?

Explore a changing world of migration, intermarriage and reproductive boundaries.

ESTIMATED DESCENDANT SHARE · AD 2026

79.1%

of the world’s population

About 6.58 billion people in this scenario.

Average among runs where the founder’s line survives to AD 2026.

Range across runs53.7% – 86.3%

Middle 80% of 39 surviving runs; uncertainty within the selected assumptions.

Founder-line survival39 of 96 runs

Simulated survival to AD 2026, separate from how widely descendants spread.

Exploratory estimate. Historically informed routes, with uncalibrated numerical assumptions. This is a model outcome, not a measured ancestry percentage or a probability that Jacob existed.

How the lineage spreads

Central · founder in 1800 BC · 96 Monte Carlo runs

Include extinct lines in the average

View a year AD 2026

Results by region

Coarse regions use the original simulator’s population scaffold. These averages cannot establish universal descent or coverage of isolated communities.

Levant / Israel>99.9%

North Africa>99.9%

Europe>99.9%

Central Asia>99.9%

South Asia99.3%

East Asia82.9%

Southeast Asia89.6%

Sub-Saharan Africa85.8%

Oceania15.5%

Latin America3.0%

North America10.7%

Arctic / isolated peoples49.4%

Assumptions and run settings

Founder’s starting date

One founder in the Levant. No additional biblical household or Exodus population is inserted. The default display conditions on survival; the checkbox above includes extinction.

Descendants move through community, newcomer/boundary and host participation. Once integrated, they use host migration and mating behavior. Migration, settlement and reproduction are separate steps.

This is a fast, aggregate extension of the site’s Rohde-style simulator: 12 regions, four subpopulations each, three participation states and changing historical regimes. Local mating and overlapping-cohort turnover are approximations; it does not track every person’s parents. The detailed 28-region historical model remains a research framework.

All newly assigned numerical rates are model assumptions (grade D). The range is not a historical confidence interval and does not include every possible reconstruction. Reproductive barriers within these coarse regions may produce lower coverage.

Read calculation and assumptions Compare original ROC presets

Model historical-adaptive-exploratory-0.2 · seed 20260930 · ages and population sizes remain approximate

Research, historical evidence and methodology

Architecture complete. Historical calibration pending.The simulator above adds an exploratory global calculation. Its numerical assumptions are kept separate from this research registry, where unestimated historical rates remain null.

28Geographic containers

32Priority route families

34Scholarly / data sources

528Synthetic pedigree runs

THE SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION

Rohde’s structure, historically adaptive inputs

Preserve towns within regions, overwhelmingly local mating, overlapping lifetimes, distance-sensitive migration, dated ports and immigrant clustering. Follow one specified founder forward through actual parent links.

The original global common-ancestor result does not establish that this founder survives. His existence, chronology and modern descendants remain outside what the simulation can prove.

R_2004 R_A R_B

Descendant(child) = Descendant(mother) OR Descendant(father)

The ancestry tag does not confer DNA, identity, fertility or a migration preference. Conversion changes affiliation; it does not create ancestry.

THE CENTRAL REPRODUCTIVE GATE

Travel is only the first step

1Migration
2Permanent settlement
3Successful reproduction
4Cross-group parenthood
5Host participation and diffusion

A diaspora community can remain within a host region for centuries while largely retaining its own marriage network. Record each stage separately.

Participation can change. Ancestry persists.

Core community

Diaspora enclave

Boundary household

Transitional participation

Host participation

These are local social states, not an inevitable one-way ladder. A branch that joins a host population follows that population’s migration and mate choices. Other branches can remain in an enclave or reaffiliate. Never permanently attach a “Jewish migration rate” to the founder’s descendants.

Proposed full model: five participation states and context-dependent transitions. The methods diagnostic uses a deliberately smaller two-state implementation with a transition delay.

Resolution follows reproductive importance

Containers organize accounting. Local towns and social strata remain the mating populations.

Download registry

Container	Initial research priority	Substructure / refinement trigger
Southern LevantLEV_S	Highest	Highest resolution from initialization: hill country, coastal/lowland networks, Transjordan and relevant community distinctions; never treat a political kingdom as a closed pedigree.
Northern Levant and CiliciaLEV_N	Highest	Split coastal ports, inland Syrian cities and upper Euphrates corridors when deportation and diaspora edges are introduced.
Egypt and Nile corridorEGY	Highest	Alexandria/Delta, Nile valley and Nubian connections; separate urban diaspora from host settlements.
MesopotamiaMES	Highest	Upper/lower Mesopotamia and Jewish diaspora/host strata. Capitals and deportee settlements can be separate port localities.
Iranian plateau and CaucasusIRC	Medium	Retain distinct nested Iranian and Caucasian corridors from first use; mountain isolates are not mixed with lowland crossroads. Promote to separate top-level regions if route sensitivity requires.
Anatolia, Aegean and BalkansAAB	Medium	Ports and imperial capitals separate from rural hinterlands; Aegean and continental routes can have different opening histories.
ArabiaARB	Medium	Northern caravan corridor, western/Red Sea settlements and southern/Gulf ports; separate nomadic, oasis and maritime strata as needed.
Italy and central Mediterranean islandsITM	Medium	Rome and major ports versus hinterland; later overseas emigrant source populations.
MaghrebMAG	Medium	Coastal cities, interior and Saharan gateways; no automatic mixing across the desert.
IberiaIBE	Medium	Religious/community boundaries, conversion and diaspora branches; later Atlantic ports.
Western and northern EuropeWNE	Medium	Initially nested regional towns; refine British Isles, Atlantic seaboard and inland source regions before transoceanic migration.
Eastern and central EuropeECE	Medium	Jewish settlement zones, host strata, Baltic/Black Sea routes; refine when founder or expulsion history matters.
Central Asian oases, steppe and SiberiaCAS	Medium	Distinct corridor and sparsely connected hinterland classes; split Bering/Arctic before considering an American connection.
South AsiaSAS	Medium	Never a panmictic node: regional town networks plus endogamous social strata. Refine northwest land routes and west/east coastal receiving populations first.
East Asian mainlandEAM	Coarse until connected	North/south and interior/coast nested regions; refine Central Asian corridor destinations before giving them access to all mainland towns.
Korean peninsula and Japanese archipelagoKJI	Coarse until connected	Separate regional populations under a shared accounting container; explicitly gated maritime crossings.
Mainland Southeast AsiaMSEA	Coarse until connected	River/lowland towns and upland populations separated; connect Indian Ocean and East Asian ports selectively.
Island Southeast AsiaISEA	Coarse until connected	Island chain structure; no single regional mate pool. Split western maritime ports from eastern islands before outward routes activate.
Horn of Africa and East African coastHEA	Coarse until connected	Separate Horn/highland, Swahili coast and inland networks; coastal mixture does not imply continent-wide entry.
Sahel and West AfricaSWA	Coarse until connected	Saharan corridors, inland populations and Atlantic source coasts; refine the latter before forced Atlantic migration.
Central and southern AfricaCSA	Coarse until connected	Keep subregional local networks; split southern colonial ports, central source zones and less connected groups when relevant.
Madagascar and western Indian Ocean islandsMAD	Coarse until connected	Separate settlement sources and later local substructure; island-specific founding histories.
North America and ArcticNAM	Coarse until connected	Initially disconnected/coarse internal networks; split Arctic, Atlantic contact zones and interior populations before relevant contact.
Mesoamerica and CaribbeanMCA	Coarse until connected	Island/continental structure; split colonial receiving ports, Indigenous groups and plantation/settler populations after contact.
South AmericaSAM	Coarse until connected	Coastal Atlantic/Pacific and interior networks; preserve sparsely connected Indigenous populations.
Australia and TasmaniaAUS	Coarse until connected	Distinct Indigenous regional networks and, later, immigrant/settler populations; contact with one coast never covers the continent.
New Guinea and Near OceaniaPNG	Coarse until connected	Highland/lowland/coastal and island structure maintained even at low research resolution.
Remote Oceania, including Aotearoa/New ZealandOCE	Coarse until connected	Island graph and settlement timing; split islands with different contact dates before they are targets of transmission.

All partitions are proposed modeling choices (D). A tiny isolated community can determine universality even when its effect on world-weighted coverage is small.

Three interpretations, with uncertainty intact

Combine well-supported route chronology with heterogeneous communities and occasional boundary crossings. It is a working interpretation, not a measured midpoint or maximum-likelihood history.

These are research interpretations, not three calibrated parameter sets. No posterior probabilities or numerical migration values are implied by this selection.