{ "schema_version": "0.1.0", "status": "research_architecture_not_calibrated", "title": "Jacob Historical Adaptive — Research Architecture", "reviewed": "2026-09-29", "calendar": { "system": "astronomical_year_numbering", "example": "1800 BCE = -1799; 1 BCE = 0; AD 1 = 1", "intervals": "start inclusive, end exclusive", "simulation_start_year": -1799, "simulation_end_year": 2026 }, "foundation": [ "R_2004", "R_B" ], "interpretation": "Research windows filter candidate evidence only. Null rates and activation dates are unknown, never zero. This file must not execute as a calibrated historical simulation.", "population_nodes": [ { "region_id": "LEV_S", "region_name": "Southern Levant", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Highest resolution from initialization: hill country, coastal/lowland networks, Transjordan and relevant community distinctions; never treat a political kingdom as a closed pedigree.", "resolution": "highest", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "LEV_N", "region_name": "Northern Levant and Cilicia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Split coastal ports, inland Syrian cities and upper Euphrates corridors when deportation and diaspora edges are introduced.", "resolution": "highest", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "EGY", "region_name": "Egypt and Nile corridor", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Alexandria/Delta, Nile valley and Nubian connections; separate urban diaspora from host settlements.", "resolution": "highest", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "MES", "region_name": "Mesopotamia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Upper/lower Mesopotamia and Jewish diaspora/host strata. Capitals and deportee settlements can be separate port localities.", "resolution": "highest", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "IRC", "region_name": "Iranian plateau and Caucasus", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Retain distinct nested Iranian and Caucasian corridors from first use; mountain isolates are not mixed with lowland crossroads. Promote to separate top-level regions if route sensitivity requires.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "AAB", "region_name": "Anatolia, Aegean and Balkans", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Ports and imperial capitals separate from rural hinterlands; Aegean and continental routes can have different opening histories.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "ARB", "region_name": "Arabia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Northern caravan corridor, western/Red Sea settlements and southern/Gulf ports; separate nomadic, oasis and maritime strata as needed.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "ITM", "region_name": "Italy and central Mediterranean islands", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Rome and major ports versus hinterland; later overseas emigrant source populations.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "MAG", "region_name": "Maghreb", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Coastal cities, interior and Saharan gateways; no automatic mixing across the desert.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "IBE", "region_name": "Iberia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Religious/community boundaries, conversion and diaspora branches; later Atlantic ports.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "WNE", "region_name": "Western and northern Europe", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Initially nested regional towns; refine British Isles, Atlantic seaboard and inland source regions before transoceanic migration.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "ECE", "region_name": "Eastern and central Europe", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Jewish settlement zones, host strata, Baltic/Black Sea routes; refine when founder or expulsion history matters.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "CAS", "region_name": "Central Asian oases, steppe and Siberia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Distinct corridor and sparsely connected hinterland classes; split Bering/Arctic before considering an American connection.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "SAS", "region_name": "South Asia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Never a panmictic node: regional town networks plus endogamous social strata. Refine northwest land routes and west/east coastal receiving populations first.", "resolution": "medium", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "EAM", "region_name": "East Asian mainland", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "North/south and interior/coast nested regions; refine Central Asian corridor destinations before giving them access to all mainland towns.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "KJI", "region_name": "Korean peninsula and Japanese archipelago", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Separate regional populations under a shared accounting container; explicitly gated maritime crossings.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "MSEA", "region_name": "Mainland Southeast Asia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "River/lowland towns and upland populations separated; connect Indian Ocean and East Asian ports selectively.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "ISEA", "region_name": "Island Southeast Asia", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Island chain structure; no single regional mate pool. Split western maritime ports from eastern islands before outward routes activate.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "HEA", "region_name": "Horn of Africa and East African coast", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Separate Horn/highland, Swahili coast and inland networks; coastal mixture does not imply continent-wide entry.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "SWA", "region_name": "Sahel and West Africa", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Saharan corridors, inland populations and Atlantic source coasts; refine the latter before forced Atlantic migration.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "CSA", "region_name": "Central and southern Africa", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Keep subregional local networks; split southern colonial ports, central source zones and less connected groups when relevant.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "MAD", "region_name": "Madagascar and western Indian Ocean islands", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Separate settlement sources and later local substructure; island-specific founding histories.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "NAM", "region_name": "North America and Arctic", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Initially disconnected/coarse internal networks; split Arctic, Atlantic contact zones and interior populations before relevant contact.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "MCA", "region_name": "Mesoamerica and Caribbean", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Island/continental structure; split colonial receiving ports, Indigenous groups and plantation/settler populations after contact.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "SAM", "region_name": "South America", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Coastal Atlantic/Pacific and interior networks; preserve sparsely connected Indigenous populations.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "AUS", "region_name": "Australia and Tasmania", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Distinct Indigenous regional networks and, later, immigrant/settler populations; contact with one coast never covers the continent.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "PNG", "region_name": "New Guinea and Near Oceania", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Highland/lowland/coastal and island structure maintained even at low research resolution.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" }, { "region_id": "OCE", "region_name": "Remote Oceania, including Aotearoa/New Zealand", "parent_region_id": null, "node_type": "geographic_container", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": 2027, "population_scope": "Total resident persons; nested communities are subsets, not additional totals", "population_low": null, "population_mid": null, "population_high": null, "substructure_strength": null, "local_mating_strength": null, "endogamy_low": null, "endogamy_mid": null, "endogamy_high": null, "generation_interval": null, "reproductive_variance": null, "evidence_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "notes": "Island graph and settlement timing; split islands with different contact dates before they are targets of transmission.", "resolution": "coarse_until_connected", "status": "proposed_partition" } ], "connectivity_edges": [ { "edge_id": "E01", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "LEV_S", "label": "Local Levantine household boundaries", "edge_type": "social", "research_start_year": -1799, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J01", "J06" ], "historical_evidence": "Sampled Bronze/Iron Age movement and admixture; later household evidence varies.", "model_inference": "An early outward reproductive link may unlock larger networks.", "notes": "Founder survival, town size and rates unmeasured; do not project later Jewish law backwards." }, { "edge_id": "E02", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "MES", "label": "Assyrian resettlement", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -745, "research_end_year": -599, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J02" ], "historical_evidence": "Eighth-century imperial movements and some destinations are documented.", "model_inference": "Forced family movement can carry a surviving tag east.", "notes": "Deportees must be sampled from actual simulated source prevalence." }, { "edge_id": "E03", "source_region": "MES", "destination_region": "LEV_S", "label": "Incoming settlers in Samaria", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -745, "research_end_year": -599, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J02" ], "historical_evidence": "Resettlement also brought outsiders into conquered territories.", "model_inference": "Incoming untagged families may connect source and host pedigrees later.", "notes": "Continuity, selection, numbers and mixed unions unresolved." }, { "edge_id": "E04", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "MES", "label": "Judah to Babylonia", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -596, "research_end_year": -538, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J03", "J04", "J05" ], "historical_evidence": "Displacement and later Judean family residence are attested.", "model_inference": "Simultaneous source bottleneck and eastern reservoir.", "notes": "Separate 597 and 587/586 windows, transport loss, selection and reproduction." }, { "edge_id": "E05", "source_region": "MES", "destination_region": "LEV_S", "label": "Return and continuing eastern diaspora", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -538, "research_end_year": -331, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J03", "J05" ], "historical_evidence": "Babylonian residents persist across the Persian period.", "model_inference": "Retain outward and return routes alongside a diaspora reservoir.", "notes": "Return permission is not a count; no wholesale return assumption." }, { "edge_id": "E06", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "EGY", "label": "Egypt–Levant settlement channels", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -1799, "research_end_year": -331, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J06" ], "historical_evidence": "Persian-period Elephantine household evidence is localized; earlier connectivity needs separate extraction.", "model_inference": "Soldiers, refugees and families are possible reproductive bridges.", "notes": "This broad research window is not a measured continuous route or an Exodus chronology." }, { "edge_id": "E07", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "EGY", "label": "Ptolemaic Egypt and Alexandria", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -331, "research_end_year": 117, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J07", "J09" ], "historical_evidence": "Documentary Jewish communities precede AD 70.", "model_inference": "A large diaspora gateway may lead into Egyptian and Mediterranean hosts.", "notes": "Presence and documentary density do not measure intermarriage." }, { "edge_id": "E08", "source_region": "LEV_N", "destination_region": "AAB", "label": "Anatolia and Aegean urban networks", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -299, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J08", "J09" ], "historical_evidence": "Hellenistic/Roman diaspora scholarship supports urban communities.", "model_inference": "Serial stepping stones, if families settle and cross boundaries.", "notes": "Extract city-specific first attestations; no instant mixing across Anatolia." }, { "edge_id": "E09", "source_region": "AAB", "destination_region": "ITM", "label": "Eastern Mediterranean to Rome/Italy", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -99, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J08", "J09", "G15" ], "historical_evidence": "Western communities predate 70; Rome has wider Mediterranean reproductive connections.", "model_inference": "Potential access to Italian host networks.", "notes": "Ancient DNA does not identify Jewish migrants; distinguish slavery, manumission and free settlement." }, { "edge_id": "E10", "source_region": "EGY", "destination_region": "MAG", "label": "Egypt, Cyrenaica and North African routes", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -299, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J07", "J09" ], "historical_evidence": "Jewish diaspora scholarship documents eastern North African communities and the 115–117 rupture.", "model_inference": "Gateway can contract after opening; survivors elsewhere may preserve branches.", "notes": "Cyrenaica must be separate from Maghreb before imposing the revolt shock." }, { "edge_id": "E11", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "ITM", "label": "Roman captivity and relocation", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 66, "research_end_year": 136, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J08", "J14" ], "historical_evidence": "Wars generated destruction and displacement; detailed destinations and totals need extraction.", "model_inference": "Deaths and slavery can extinguish or transport branches.", "notes": "No total expulsion; localize Judean losses and separate the three war windows." }, { "edge_id": "E12", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "LEV_S", "label": "Conversion, incorporation and affiliation exits", "edge_type": "social", "research_start_year": -199, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J06", "J10", "J11", "J15" ], "historical_evidence": "Conversion and institutional boundaries are debated and regionally variable.", "model_inference": "Social reassignment changes mate access without changing the descent tag.", "notes": "Conversion alone never creates descent; legal bans do not quantify behavior." }, { "edge_id": "E13", "source_region": "MES", "destination_region": "IRC", "label": "Babylonian–Iranian and frontier networks", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 224, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J12" ], "historical_evidence": "Jewish society participated in Sasanian imperial institutions.", "model_inference": "Potential host entry and eastward travel require separate gates.", "notes": "Participation and scholarly travel do not establish host reproduction." }, { "edge_id": "E14", "source_region": "LEV_S", "destination_region": "ARB", "label": "Northwestern Arabian oasis networks", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 200, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J13" ], "historical_evidence": "Late-antique communities have uneven epigraphic and literary support.", "model_inference": "Possible entry to caravan and later host networks.", "notes": "Origins, arrival windows and settler shares unresolved." }, { "edge_id": "E15", "source_region": "ARB", "destination_region": "HEA", "label": "Himyar and Red Sea interfaces", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 350, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J13" ], "historical_evidence": "Late-antique Judaism and political adoption in Himyar are supported.", "model_inference": "Test immigrant-associated and primarily local-conversion histories.", "notes": "State religion supplies no founder ancestry; coastal reproduction needs direct evidence." }, { "edge_id": "E16", "source_region": "LEV_N", "destination_region": "MES", "label": "Northern Levant and Mesopotamian corridor", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -745, "research_end_year": 700, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J02", "J12" ], "historical_evidence": "Imperial resettlement and later frontier societies provide route context.", "model_inference": "Separate upper/lower Mesopotamia and port/interior towns.", "notes": "Magnitude and successful household crossings await targeted extraction." }, { "edge_id": "E17", "source_region": "ITM", "destination_region": "ITM", "label": "Diaspora enclave to host households", "edge_type": "social", "research_start_year": -99, "research_end_year": 2027, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "J06", "J09", "G16" ], "historical_evidence": "Marriage and community evidence vary across ancient and later diaspora settings.", "model_inference": "First host child and later host participation can matter more than migrant volume.", "notes": "This is a template repeated per locality, not one Italy-wide or all-Jewish rate." }, { "edge_id": "E18", "source_region": "ITM", "destination_region": "WNE", "label": "Mediterranean hosts to European hinterlands", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 700, "research_end_year": 1914, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G15", "G16" ], "historical_evidence": "Regional movement and medieval population heterogeneity motivate differentiated networks.", "model_inference": "Assimilated descendants follow host mobility into later emigrant sources.", "notes": "Research locality-specific connections; no homogeneous Europe." }, { "edge_id": "E19", "source_region": "WNE", "destination_region": "ECE", "label": "European Jewish settlement and displacement", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 900, "research_end_year": 1946, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G16", "J09" ], "historical_evidence": "Medieval Jewish heterogeneity and founder history require internal differentiation.", "model_inference": "Enclave persistence, conversion and eastward movement create alternative paths.", "notes": "Expulsions, bottlenecks and union rates need detailed extraction." }, { "edge_id": "E20", "source_region": "ARB", "destination_region": "SAS", "label": "Gulf/Red Sea to South Asia", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 700, "research_end_year": 1800, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G07", "G14" ], "historical_evidence": "Indian Ocean commerce and South Asian social substructure are documented.", "model_inference": "Port households may bridge networks while caste/community boundaries slow diffusion.", "notes": "Trade volume does not supply reproductive rates; split coastal and inland strata." }, { "edge_id": "E21", "source_region": "IRC", "destination_region": "CAS", "label": "Iranian and Central Asian corridors", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 700, "research_end_year": 1500, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "D", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G07" ], "historical_evidence": "Regional route context requires corridor-specific historical extraction.", "model_inference": "Possible eastward gateway once source contains descendants.", "notes": "Candidate research edge, not confirmed founder or quantified reproductive route." }, { "edge_id": "E22", "source_region": "CAS", "destination_region": "EAM", "label": "Central Asian to East Asian gateways", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 700, "research_end_year": 1800, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "D", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "historical_evidence": "Rohde supplies a coarse benchmark connection, not calibration.", "model_inference": "Tests a potentially limiting eastern gateway.", "notes": "Acquire independent corridor and household evidence before numeric use." }, { "edge_id": "E23", "source_region": "ARB", "destination_region": "HEA", "label": "Indian Ocean coastal reproductive exchange", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 900, "research_end_year": 1800, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G08", "G07" ], "historical_evidence": "Medieval coastal genomes support African–Asian reproduction and sex bias.", "model_inference": "A real reproductive proxy strengthens route plausibility.", "notes": "Sampled coast/elite contexts cannot be extended to all inland populations." }, { "edge_id": "E24", "source_region": "ISEA", "destination_region": "MAD", "label": "Madagascar founding sources", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 700, "research_end_year": 1600, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G09" ], "historical_evidence": "Genomic evidence supports multiple island founding sources.", "model_inference": "A rare long-distance reproductive bridge.", "notes": "Refine arrival timing and ensure source lineage is present before departure." }, { "edge_id": "E25", "source_region": "OCE", "destination_region": "SAM", "label": "Pre-European Pacific–American contact", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 1100, "research_end_year": 1500, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G10", "G11" ], "historical_evidence": "Modern and ancient genomes support localized pre-European contact.", "model_inference": "Alternative topology can change entry timing.", "notes": "Direction, island/source locality and counts need scenario treatment; no entire-continent coverage." }, { "edge_id": "E26", "source_region": "IBE", "destination_region": "MCA", "label": "Atlantic colonization and settlement", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 1492, "research_end_year": 2027, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G12", "G13" ], "historical_evidence": "Oceanic migration and subsequent reproduction reshaped receiving populations.", "model_inference": "Large new gateway plus separate Indigenous/settler social boundaries.", "notes": "MCA is only a container; each coast/interior/island route requires its own evidence." }, { "edge_id": "E27", "source_region": "SWA", "destination_region": "MCA", "label": "Forced Atlantic migration", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 1500, "research_end_year": 1900, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "A", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G12", "G13" ], "historical_evidence": "Voyage records constrain embarked and arrived people, with reconstruction uncertainty.", "model_inference": "Directed movement plus survival and highly unequal reproduction.", "notes": "Do not count arrivals as mixed unions; disaggregate African sources and American destinations." }, { "edge_id": "E28", "source_region": "WNE", "destination_region": "NAM", "label": "Atlantic settlement and mass migration", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 1600, "research_end_year": 2027, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "B", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G05", "G06" ], "historical_evidence": "Later modern origin/destination data constrain movement; earlier records need extraction.", "model_inference": "Connect European host lineages to new receiving networks.", "notes": "Preserve Indigenous, immigrant and religious strata." }, { "edge_id": "E29", "source_region": "WNE", "destination_region": "AUS", "label": "Australia and Pacific settlement corridors", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 1788, "research_end_year": 2027, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "source_to_destination", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G05", "G06" ], "historical_evidence": "Modern movement can be checked with migration data; early local histories remain to extract.", "model_inference": "Late routes leave few generations for onward spread.", "notes": "Settler entry does not imply reproductive access to all Indigenous communities." }, { "edge_id": "E30", "source_region": "SAS", "destination_region": "ISEA", "label": "South Asian to maritime Southeast Asian gateways", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": 700, "research_end_year": 2027, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "C", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "G07", "G14" ], "historical_evidence": "Indian Ocean institutional routes motivate targeted port research.", "model_inference": "Connect settled coastal families to island chains.", "notes": "No immediate access to all inland or island mating pools." }, { "edge_id": "E31", "source_region": "ISEA", "destination_region": "PNG", "label": "Island chains to Near Oceania", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -1799, "research_end_year": 2027, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "D", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B" ], "historical_evidence": "Benchmark island connectivity needs modern locality-specific evidence.", "model_inference": "Island substructure controls stepwise spread.", "notes": "Retain highland/coastal barriers; this research window is not an activation date." }, { "edge_id": "E32", "source_region": "PNG", "destination_region": "OCE", "label": "Near to Remote Oceania", "edge_type": "geographic", "research_start_year": -1799, "research_end_year": 2027, "start_year": null, "end_year": null, "activation_status": "requires_field_level_extraction", "directionality": "bidirectional_candidates", "migration_low": null, "migration_mid": null, "migration_high": null, "migration_unit": null, "migration_measure": null, "settlement_probability": null, "reproduce_given_settlement": null, "cross_group_reproduction_probability": null, "assimilation_rate": null, "initial_migration_burst": null, "immigrant_clustering": null, "barrier_strength": null, "distance_km": null, "transportation_context": null, "source_social_state": "context_specific", "destination_social_state": "context_specific", "evidence_grade": "D", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "sources": [ "R_B", "G11" ], "historical_evidence": "Settlement/contact sequences require island-level reconstruction.", "model_inference": "Edges may predate arrival of founder descendants at the source.", "notes": "A route existing early is not useful unless descendants reach it before it closes." } ], "historical_regimes": [ { "regime_id": "bronze", "start_year": -1799, "end_year": -1199, "date_label": "1800–1200 BCE", "title": "Founder and Bronze Age background", "mechanism": "Local survival and early boundary permeability; ethnic labels cannot be projected backwards.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "iron", "start_year": -1199, "end_year": -745, "date_label": "1200–746 BCE", "title": "Early Iron Age reorganization", "mechanism": "Test settlement-based local structure; no guaranteed Israelite founder tag.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "assyrian", "start_year": -745, "end_year": -596, "date_label": "746–597 BCE", "title": "Assyrian movement", "mechanism": "Multiple campaigns, incoming settlers, forced family migration and local continuity.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "babylonian", "start_year": -596, "end_year": -538, "date_label": "597–539 BCE", "title": "Babylonian displacement", "mechanism": "Separate 597 and 587/586 BCE event windows, Judah survival and eastern settlement.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "persian", "start_year": -538, "end_year": -331, "date_label": "539–332 BCE", "title": "Persian mobility", "mechanism": "Return routes coexist with families remaining in Babylonia; Egypt differs by locality.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "hellenistic", "start_year": -331, "end_year": -62, "date_label": "332–63 BCE", "title": "Hellenistic diaspora", "mechanism": "Egyptian, Anatolian and Aegean communities; incorporation/conversion alternatives.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "early_roman", "start_year": -62, "end_year": 66, "date_label": "63 BCE–AD 66", "title": "Early Roman networks", "mechanism": "Pre-70 diaspora, Rome, urban hosts, captivity, manumission and ordinary migration.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "roman_wars", "start_year": 66, "end_year": 136, "date_label": "AD 66–135", "title": "Three distinct crisis windows", "mechanism": "66–70, 115–117 and 132–135; localized loss and relocation, not one total expulsion.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "late_antique", "start_year": 136, "end_year": 700, "date_label": "AD 136–699", "title": "Late-antique boundaries", "mechanism": "Regional Christianization, Sasanian contexts, Galilee, Arabia and changing institutions.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "medieval", "start_year": 700, "end_year": 1200, "date_label": "AD 700–1199", "title": "Imperial and maritime corridors", "mechanism": "Host mobility, Indian Ocean, European enclaves and conversion; merchant residence is not mixing.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "late_medieval", "start_year": 1200, "end_year": 1492, "date_label": "AD 1200–1491", "title": "Corridors, shocks and island contacts", "mechanism": "Mongol-era routes, plague, European expulsions, pre-European Pacific–American alternatives.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "oceanic", "start_year": 1492, "end_year": 1800, "date_label": "AD 1492–1799", "title": "Atlantic and oceanic reconfiguration", "mechanism": "Directed forced migration, colonization, conversion, Indigenous barriers and local collapse.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "industrial", "start_year": 1800, "end_year": 1914, "date_label": "AD 1800–1913", "title": "Mass migration and urbanization", "mechanism": "Destination communities, rail/steam, indenture and host-entry delays.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "wars", "start_year": 1914, "end_year": 1946, "date_label": "AD 1914–1945", "title": "War and catastrophic displacement", "mechanism": "Family-correlated losses, genocide, forced relocation and closed borders.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "postwar", "start_year": 1946, "end_year": 1990, "date_label": "AD 1946–1989", "title": "Postwar migrations", "mechanism": "Israel, refugees, decolonization and changing host marriage markets.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" }, { "regime_id": "modern", "start_year": 1990, "end_year": 2027, "date_label": "AD 1990–2026", "title": "Modern migration and boundaries", "mechanism": "Separate travel, residence, fertility and intermarriage; limited generations remain.", "status": "research_window_not_universal_rate_switch" } ], "parameters": [ { "parameter_id": "resident_population", "unit": "persons", "denominator": "defined geographic/social population", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Controls finite mating pools and population accounting; never substitute genetic effective size.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "migration", "unit": "persons_per_event_or_per_generation", "denominator": "source residents or absolute event total, explicitly selected", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Routes individuals; flow stage must identify departure, arrival, settlement or reproductive settler.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "settlement", "unit": "probability", "denominator": "arrived migrants", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Distinguishes travel from residence; duration threshold belongs in record.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "reproductive_success", "unit": "probability", "denominator": "settled migrants in specified eligible age/sex class", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Measures at least one child surviving to model entry age; do not multiply twice in individual birth engine.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "cross_group_partner_choice", "unit": "relative_weight_or_probability", "denominator": "eligible partners or first reproductive union, explicit convention", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Implement as one partner-choice mechanism; avoid duplicate endogamy penalties.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "host_participation", "unit": "transition_hazard_or_delay", "denominator": "specified current social-state/age/household class", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Branch-specific affiliation change; not an inherited ancestry property.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "household_clustering", "unit": "distribution", "denominator": "migrant households and destination local populations", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Controls number of independent bridges.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "mating_locality", "unit": "probability_and_distance_kernel", "denominator": "eligible partners after sex/age/social filtering", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Retains overwhelmingly local mating and distance decay.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "survival_schedule", "unit": "age_specific_probability", "denominator": "living persons by age, sex, event exposure", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Overlapping generations and correlated mortality; adult-only model folds child survival into births.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null }, { "parameter_id": "fertility_schedule", "unit": "offspring_reaching_entry_age", "denominator": "woman/household by age and regime", "time_basis": "explicit_per_record", "low": null, "mid": null, "high": null, "distribution": null, "status": "unestimated", "historical_evidence": null, "model_inference": "Retain zero reproduction, variance and repeated partnership; fit population targets without cloning tags.", "numeric_choice_grade": "D", "evidence_grade": null, "sources": [], "locator": null, "dependency_group": null } ], "scenarios": [ { "scenario_id": "conservative", "label": "Historically conservative", "description": "Use securely evidenced settlement paths; test long enclave persistence and late host access. Uncertain routes remain explicit alternatives, not asserted historical zeros.", "posterior_weight": null }, { "scenario_id": "central", "label": "Central working interpretation", "description": "Combine well-supported route chronology with heterogeneous communities and occasional boundary crossings. It is a working interpretation, not a measured midpoint or maximum-likelihood history.", "posterior_weight": null }, { "scenario_id": "higher", "label": "Higher connectivity", "description": "Add plausible weakly documented bridges, earlier feasible openings and faster host participation where not contradicted by evidence. No automatic panmixia or guaranteed survival.", "posterior_weight": null } ], "priority_ranking": [ { "rank": 1, "parameter_group": "Founder survival", "research": "Early reproductive failure, correlated household loss, offspring variance", "reason": "Unconditional survival can dominate; later routes cannot revive an extinct lineage.", "status": "prior_hypothesis_not_full_historical_sensitivity" }, { "rank": 2, "parameter_group": "First host reproductive crossing", "research": "Local Levantine and Jewish–host unions, exits, settlement and reproduction", "reason": "Opens a much larger pedigree network; a surviving enclave may otherwise remain enclosed.", "status": "prior_hypothesis_not_full_historical_sensitivity" }, { "rank": 3, "parameter_group": "Isolation and port timing", "research": "Route existence, direction, opening/closure windows", "reason": "Time-respecting paths and missed expansion windows matter more than travel totals.", "status": "prior_hypothesis_not_full_historical_sensitivity" }, { "rank": 4, "parameter_group": "Host participation and local structure", "research": "Enclave clustering, transitional households, host marriage rules", "reason": "Determines whether an initial bridge spreads beyond a few related households.", "status": "prior_hypothesis_not_full_historical_sensitivity" }, { "rank": 5, "parameter_group": "Gateway bottlenecks", "research": "War, deportation selection, urban sinks, family migration", "reason": "Can remove or amplify rare tagged branches; census size alone is insufficient.", "status": "prior_hypothesis_not_full_historical_sensitivity" }, { "rank": 6, "parameter_group": "Host networks and remote boundaries", "research": "Caste/religious/class barriers, coast/interior and island structure", "reason": "Often crucial for unreached groups even if world-weighted coverage barely changes.", "status": "prior_hypothesis_not_full_historical_sensitivity" }, { "rank": 7, "parameter_group": "Demographic refinement", "research": "Age schedules, fertility, cousin marriage and reproductive inequality", "reason": "Refine when measured sensitivity elevates them; avoid unsupported ancient precision.", "status": "prior_hypothesis_not_full_historical_sensitivity" } ], "sources": [ { "source_id": "R_2004", "title": "Rohde, Olson & Chang (2004), Modelling the recent common ancestry of all living humans. Nature 431, 562–566.", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02842", "use": "Foundational structured genealogy; distinguish a global MRCA from a specified founder.", "access_status": "Article and supplements inspected through author/university copies" }, { "source_id": "R_A", "title": "Rohde, Olson & Chang (2004), Supplementary Methods A", "url": "https://www.stat.yale.edu/~jtc5/papers/CommonAncestors/NatureCommonAncestors-SupplementA.pdf", "use": "Graph-model assumptions and mathematical checks, not historical rates.", "access_status": "University compilation inspected: https://people.sc.fsu.edu/~pbeerli/bsc5932/Rohde-et-al.pdf" }, { "source_id": "R_B", "title": "Rohde, Olson & Chang (2004), Supplementary Methods B", "url": "https://www.stat.yale.edu/~jtc5/papers/CommonAncestors/NatureCommonAncestors-SupplementB.pdf", "use": "Nested towns/countries/regions, lifetimes, clustering, dated ports and scaling limits.", "access_status": "University compilation inspected: https://people.sc.fsu.edu/~pbeerli/bsc5932/Rohde-et-al.pdf" }, { "source_id": "J01", "title": "Agranat-Tamir et al. (2020), The Genomic History of the Bronze Age Southern Levant. Cell.", "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32470400/", "use": "Movement and admixture constraints; cannot identify Jacob or measure intermarriage rates.", "access_status": "Publisher/abstract record verified; detailed extraction pending" }, { "source_id": "J02", "title": "Radner (2018/2019), The “Lost Tribes of Israel” in the Context of the Resettlement Programme of the Assyrian Empire.", "url": "https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/58863/", "use": "Documented Assyrian destinations and uncertain extensions; no modern lost-tribe identifications.", "access_status": "Publisher/abstract record verified; detailed extraction pending" }, { "source_id": "J03", "title": "Lipschits (2005), The Fall and Rise of Jerusalem: Judah under Babylonian Rule.", "url": "https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781575065533/html", "use": "Regional destruction and continuity; compare alternative archaeological reconstructions.", "access_status": "Publisher/abstract record verified; detailed extraction pending" }, { "source_id": "J04", "title": "Pearce & Wunsch (2014), Documents of Judean Exiles and West Semites in Babylonia. CUSAS 28.", "url": "https://www.eisenbrauns.org/books/titles/978-1-934309-57-5.html", "use": "Resident families in primary-document editions; selected archive, not a population denominator.", "access_status": "Publisher/abstract record verified; detailed extraction pending" }, { "source_id": "J05", "title": "Alstola (2020), Judeans in Babylonia: A Study of Deportees in the Sixth and Fifth Centuries BCE.", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004365421", "use": "Rural/urban settlement, social position and differential integration.", "access_status": "Publisher/abstract record verified; detailed extraction pending" }, { "source_id": "J06", "title": "Satlow (2001), Jewish Marriage in Antiquity.", "url": "https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv346sfv", "use": "Household evidence and variation; distinguish prescribed marriage rules from practice.", "access_status": "Publisher/abstract record verified; detailed extraction pending" }, { "source_id": "J07", "title": "Hacham & Ilan, eds. 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